Andreessen Sounds China AI Alarm

Welcome back! Hope you had a great weekend.

Here’s your must-read news this morning:

• Oil jumps over Israel-Iran War

• U.S.-China AI “Cold War”

• TikTok ban deadline 

I’ve got all the details for you, so let’s dive in.

— Josh

MARKETS

🛢️ Oil Surges as Iran Threatens to Close Strait of Hormuz Amid Israel Strikes

The Scoop: U.S. crude surged 13% last week, with WTI futures up 1.11% Monday to $73.79 per barrel, as Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz after Israel’s airstrikes on its nuclear and military targets raised fears of global energy supply disruptions.

The Details:

• Sardar Esmaeil Kowsari, IRGC commander and parliament member, said Saturday that closing the Strait is “under consideration,” risking 20% of global oil and 20-30% of LNG shipments through the 33 km-wide chokepoint.

• Oil prices jumped over 7% Friday, marking the largest single-day gain since March 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

• Israel’s Saturday strikes hit Iran’s South Pars gas field, partially halting production, and a Tehran fuel depot and oil refinery.

• Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, supplies 4.5% of global oil with 3.3 million barrels per day of crude and 1.3 million bpd of other liquids.

• Goldman Sachs warns a Strait closure could push oil above $100 per barrel, but RBC’s Helima Croft says U.S. naval presence may limit Iran’s ability.

What’s Next: Markets await Iran’s next steps, with a Strait closure threatening higher energy costs and inflation. Monday’s manufacturing data and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rate decision—likely unchanged, per CME’s FedWatch—will shape sentiment. Rising oil prices could curb hopes for rate cuts, despite President Trump’s push for easing.

Markets Roundup

🏦 Economy & Policy

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Trump arrived in Alberta, Canada, on Sunday for the G7 summit to discuss tariffs, the Israel-Iran war, and AI with leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the U.K. (BBG)

• The Bank of Japan may ease the pace of government bond purchase reductions starting April 2026, wary of rising yields on superlong bonds. (NIK)

• British home asking prices dropped the most in 14 years for this period, signaling softer pricing following the expiration of a tax break on property sales, according to data. (YF)

• In Massachusetts, the priciest U.S. state, a family of four requires over $300,000 annually to be comfortable, per a SmartAsset analysis. (CNBC)

• China's industrial output growth decelerated to 5.8% year-over-year in May, down from 6.1% in April, falling short of analysts' expectations for a 5.9% increase. (RTS)

• U.S. Treasury yields edged up early Monday, with the 2-year yield rising nearly 2 basis points to 3.974% and the 10-year yield increasing 1 basis point to 4.432%. (CNBC)

📈 Stock Market

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Stock futures rose early Monday, with Dow futures up 0.15%, S&P 500 futures up 0.24%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.36%, as Israel-Iran tensions spiked oil prices and stoked global economic concerns. (CNBC)

• European stocks edged higher Monday morning, with the STOXX 600 index rising 0.2% to 545.87, buoyed by corporate gains. (INV)

• Energy and defense stocks are poised to rise as escalating Israel-Iran tensions fuel investor demand. (INV)

• Barington Capital Group plans to push for a board overhaul at Victoria's Secret, end its "poison pill" plan, and focus on core brands while expanding digitally and internationally. (WSJ)

• Jaguar Land Rover, Tata Motors' luxury unit, slashed its FY26 EBIT margin forecast to 5%-7% from 10% and projected near-zero free cash flow, dragging Tata Motors' shares down over 5%. (ET)

🏢 Industry & Deals

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Leonard Lauder, eldest son of Estée Lauder’s founders and former CEO of the cosmetics giant, died at 92. (ELC)

• Kering SA plans to appoint Luca de Meo, Renault SA’s CEO who revitalized the French automaker, as its new chief to lead a turnaround at Gucci. (BBG)

• Honeywell is pursuing acquisitions of European companies to strengthen its portfolio, capitalizing on increased defense spending. (BBG)

💵 Energy & Commodities

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Santos, Australia’s second-largest oil and gas producer, has received a $18.72 billion takeover bid from a consortium led by Abu Dhabi’s national oil company. (WSJ)

• The EU plans to ban new Russian gas contracts through trade law. (FT)

• Saudi Electricity Co. is seeking a $1 billion loan to fund new projects, including a power plant expansion. (BBG)

• Critical Metals Corp. secured a letter of interest from the U.S. Export-Import Bank for a potential $120 million loan to develop its Tanbreez rare earths mine in Greenland. (RTS)

• Bank of America forecasts gold could surge to $4,000 per ounce within a year, driven by the U.S. deficit, interest rates, and dollar strength. (TFE)

🌕 Crypto

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: President Donald Trump reported $57.4 million in income from World Liberty Financial, the crypto venture supported by his sons, Donald Jr. and Eric Trump. (FT)

• Vietnam's National Assembly passed the Law on Digital Technology Industry, effective January 1, 2026, recognizing crypto assets and establishing a regulatory framework to foster nationwide digital innovation. (CT)

• The SEC has approved Trump Media's registration statement for its Bitcoin treasury transaction, paving the way for the company to purchase Bitcoin using the $2.3 billion it recently raised. (TB)

• Brazil has eliminated its tax exemption for small-scale crypto profits, imposing a 17.5% flat rate on all digital asset capital gains. (CT)

• Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire predicted that stablecoins will soon draw developer interest on par with the iPhone, calling them “the highest utility form of money ever created.” (X)

TECH

🧠 Marc Andreessen: U.S. Must Win AI “Cold War” Against China

The Scoop: Billionaire tech investor Marc Andreessen warned in an interview with Jack Altman of the Uncapped podcast that the U.S. must win the AI “Cold War” against China or face a future where Chinese AI, steeped in Marxist ideology, controls all aspects of society.

The Details:

• Andreessen, co-founder of the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, likened the U.S.-China AI race to the Cold War, predicting AI will govern all sectors, from schools to transportation.

• He cautioned that Chinese AI could embed Xi Jinping’s ideology, teaching children and running societies worldwide if the U.S. lags.

• China aims to export its tech and societal model globally, Andreessen said, leaving American or Chinese AI as the world’s only options in 20 years.

• Venture capitalist Vinod Khosla has echoed concerns, warning China’s AI-driven economic power could offer free global services by 2030, spreading its political philosophy.

What’s Next: Expect the Trump administration to continue supporting U.S. AI, building on the president’s January executive order repealing Biden’s restrictive AI diffusion regulations, which blocked American tech companies from sharing its innovations with allies. Last month, the Trump administration brokered landmark agreements with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, enabling the Gulf nations to acquire advanced AI tech, including tens of thousands of Nvidia semiconductors and investments in data centers critical for AI development.

Tech Roundup

🧠 AI

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Google reportedly plans to end its relationship with Scale AI after Meta acquired a 49% stake, having intended to pay $200 million annually for human-labeled training data essential for its Gemini AI models. (RTS)

• Taiwan’s Commerce Ministry added Chinese chipmakers Huawei and SMIC to its export control list, potentially curbing their access to key resources amid rising trade and tech tensions with China and the U.S. (AP)

• Amazon plans to invest $12.97 billion from 2025 to 2029 to expand and maintain its Australian data center infrastructure, enhancing the country’s artificial intelligence capabilities. (AA)

• Tech entrepreneur James Ingallinera announces plans for Frontier Valley, a vast special-regulation district in Silicon Valley, aiming to be America’s hub for physical AI and deep-tech innovation.(X)

• Sydney researchers have developed an AI model that decodes words and sentences from brainwaves using a wearable electrode cap. (ABC)

• Chinese researchers claim that large language models, such as ChatGPT and Gemini, are capable of spontaneous human-like understanding of natural objects. (IE)

🤖 Hardware & Robotics

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Chinese robot manufacturers, spurred by U.S. industrial reshoring efforts, are eyeing the American market, raising concerns about potential data harvesting, a robotics executive warns. (UH)

• The U.S. Army’s 250th anniversary parade concluded with displays of small drones soaring above soldiers and camouflaged robotic dogs. (NBC)

• X Square Robot’s CEO dismissed humanoid robots in factories as a “PR stunt,” urging the industry to prioritize generalized AI capabilities. (KR)

🚀 Defense & Space

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: China’s nuclear arsenal grew by 100 warheads in 2025, expanding from an estimated 500 to over 600, potentially signaling heightened strategic ambitions, according to a report. (BD)

• A massive stealth flying wing, possibly China’s long-awaited H-20 stealth bomber or a large high-altitude stealth drone, has surfaced at a secretive Chinese base, according to a report. (TWZ)

• NASA’s proposed GIRO probe, a compact, battery-powered device, is capable of mapping exoplanet interiors with 100x precision using gravity fields and radio signals, potentially revealing alien worlds’ composition and structure. (SP)

• Amazon’s Project Kuiper is set to launch a second batch of broadband satellites today from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, aiming to provide fast, reliable internet to global customers and communities. (WESH)

• NASA announced that a private astronaut mission to the International Space Station could launch as early as June 19, as the agency investigates an air leak in the station’s Russian segment. (SN)

• The U.S. Navy’s classified ‘SONGBOW’ program advanced with a $29.9 million contract to Coherent Aerospace & Defense for a 400-kilowatt laser to counter drones, missiles, and aerial threats. (IE)

💰 Venture Capital & Deals

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Clay, a sales automation startup, has secured a Series C funding round at a roughly $3 billion valuation, led by CapitalG. (TC)

• Archer Aviation, a developer of electric air taxis, raised $850 million in funding after Trump signed executive orders supporting the industry. (INV)

• Autonomize AI, a developer of AI-driven healthcare solutions, raised $28 million in a Series A funding round led by Valtruis, bringing its total capital to $32 million. (BW)

• Conveyor, a provider of AI agents for B2B customer trust workflows like security reviews and RFPs, raised $20 million in a Series B funding round led by SignalFire. (PRN)

• Farsight, an AI workflow startup serving investment banks and private equity firms, raised $16 million in a Series A round led by SignalFire. (FF)

🔒 Cybersecurity

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: The Washington Post is probing a potential foreign-orchestrated cyberattack targeting email accounts of select journalists. (WSJ)

• Cyberattacks on Israeli infrastructure soared 700% over two days, with Radware reporting an “unprecedented wave” of malicious network activity amid escalating conflict with Iran. (CCT)

• WestJet Airlines, Canada’s second-largest carrier, is addressing a cyberattack that has disrupted some online services since Friday. (IM)

FREEDOM

📱 Trump Faces TikTok Ban Deadline This Week

The Scoop: President Donald Trump could further extend the TikTok ban pause, set to expire June 19, as U.S.-China talks on a potential sale stall, according to Punchbowl News.

The Details:

• Trump’s January 20 executive order paused the TikTok ban, followed by an April 4 extension for negotiations.

• No progress has been made on a deal with TikTok’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, amid U.S.-China trade negotiations.

• Oracle, TikTok’s cloud provider, is among investors eyeing a stake in the U.S. app, used by 170 million Americans.

• The Supreme Court upheld the ban, citing national security concerns over ByteDance’s data-sharing risks with China.

What’s Next: Trump’s expected 75-day extension would buy more time for a deal, but with the U.S. and China prioritizing broader trade talks, prospects remain dim. Investors await clarity on TikTok’s U.S. future, with Oracle still best positioned to secure a potential bid. Meanwhile, Congress may push for a firm deadline to enforce the ban.

Freedom Roundup

🏛️ Economic & Education Policy

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, is leaving the Democratic National Committee due to disputes with DNC Chair Ken Martin. (TH)

• Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) vowed to keep senators working through weekends and holidays, potentially into the July 4th recess, to pass the "Big, Beautiful Bill." (FOX)

💻 Business & Tech Policy

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Apple faces another potential EU antitrust charge sheet unless it swiftly addresses alleged violations of a new digital law, following a $579 million fine earlier this year. (BBG)

💬 Free Speech & Woke Overreach

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: The State Department voiced support for Ireland’s free speech and sovereignty as its delay in adopting the EU’s hate speech law risks Brussels-imposed fines and loss of voting rights. (RTN)

• Ram Trucks CEO Tim Kuniskis apologized for discontinuing the HEMI V-8 engine in 2025 models, announcing its return in 2026 after backlash over the parent company’s “woke” pivot. (NYP)

• A Washington Post editorial urged colleges to take "strenuous action" to restore the free exchange of ideas on campuses. (FOX)

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