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MARKETS

💰 Private Payrolls Rebound With 42,000 October Gain, More Than Expected

(Credit: mwitt1337/Pixabay)

The Scoop: Private payrolls rebounded in October with a better-than-expected gain of 42,000 jobs, per ADP's report Wednesday, offering a tentative sign of labor market stability, CNBC reports.

The Details:

  • Companies added 42,000 jobs after September's revised loss of 29,000, surpassing Dow Jones estimates of 22,000 and marking the first monthly increase since July.

  • Gains were led by trade, transportation and utilities (+47,000) and education/health services (+26,000), with financial activities adding 11,000; losses hit information services (-17,000), professional/business services (-15,000), and manufacturing (-3,000) despite Trump's tariffs.

  • All net job creation came from large firms (250+ employees, +76,000), while small businesses shed 34,000 roles.

  • Annual pay growth held steady at 4.5% for job-stayers and rose to 6.7% for switchers

What’s Next: Investors will eye Thursday's Challenger layoffs and state jobless claims, Friday's Michigan sentiment gauge, and Indeed's low job postings for clues, while a prolonged shutdown risks delaying full October BLS data and amplifying market volatility.

Market Roundup

🏦 Economy

  • Editor’s Pick: Amid the government's shutdown, the FAA slashed air traffic by 10% across 40 high-volume markets, prompting airlines to trim regional routes. (FBN)

  • Bessent hailed the Supreme Court's tariff hearing as going "very well" for the Trump administration, expressing confidence that justices will affirm its authority to impose duties. (FOX)

  • Trump's chief political adviser James Blair said the administration will refocus its messaging on affordability. (POL)

  • In his latest Stratechery dispatch, Ben Thompson posits that the frothy AI bubble is not a peril but a boon, echoing Carlota Perez's thesis that speculative manias propel technological revolutions through an "installation phase" of overinvestment. (STR)

📈 Hot Stock Picks

  • Editor’s Pick: Amid the AI surge, where power constraints throttle data-center expansion, Motley Fool spotlights Applied Digital and Core Scientific as top buys. (MF)

  • Zacks Investment Research designated nVent Electric as its Bull of the Day with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), fueled by robust earnings momentum from four analysts lifting 2025 and 2026 estimates. (ZCK)

  • Analyst Kevin Heim at RBC Capital Markets upgraded Expand Energy, setting a $120 price target—23% above the current $97.50—citing the company's expansion into liquefied natural gas. (BAR)

  • T. Rowe Price's Capital Appreciation Equity ETF, led by star manager David Giroux, secured a Morningstar Gold rating for its projected 100-basis-point annual outperformance against the S&P 500. (MS)

🏢 Industry

  • Editor’s Pick: Fears over New York City's incoming mayor, Zohran Mamdani, have sparked a $100 million-plus rush by affluent New Yorkers into South Florida real estate. (FBN)

  • Starbucks workers plan strikes in 25 U.S. cities on November 13's Red Cup Day, escalating union demands for better pay and conditions amid stalled contract talks. (BBG)

  • At 89, activist investor Carl Icahn is intensifying his fight to restore his battered empire after a short-seller assault and bondholder revolt slashed his net worth to $5.9 billion. (WSJ)

  • Robinhood doubled Q3 revenue to $1.27 billion, beating analyst estimates, while posting net income of $556 million and earnings per share of 61 cents. (CNBC)

  • Figma reported Q3 revenue of $274.2 million, up 38% year-over-year and beating estimates, with adjusted EPS of 10 cents and a 12% operating margin. (CNBC)

🛢️ Energy & Commodities

  • Editor’s Pick: Poland is negotiating to import additional U.S. liquefied natural gas to supply Ukraine and Slovakia, potentially up to 4-5 billion cubic meters annually. (RTS)

  • China purchased two cargoes totaling 120,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat for December shipment, its first such buys since October 2024. (INV)

  • The U.S. and Japan plan to explore joint development of rare earth mining in the waters around Minamitori Island in the Pacific. (BZ)

🌕 Crypto

  • Editor’s Pick: Trump declared his goal for the U.S. to become the "Bitcoin superpower" and "crypto capital of the world" in a Miami speech. (CD)

  • Ripple Labs secured a $500 million funding round at a $40 billion valuation, led by Fortress Investment Group and Citadel Securities, to bolster its expansion into institutional finance via stablecoins. (TB)

  • Circle revised its USDC terms of service to permit legal firearm purchases in the U.S., reversing a prior ban. (DEC)

  • The Bank of England will publish a stablecoin regulation consultation on November 10, seeking to match the U.S. in rollout speed. (BBG)

SPONSOR

Where to Invest $100,000 According to Experts

Investors face a dilemma. Headlines everywhere say tariffs and AI hype are distorting public markets.

Now, the S&P is trading at over 30x earnings—a level historically linked to crashes.

And the Fed is lowering rates, potentially adding fuel to the fire.

Bloomberg asked where experts would personally invest $100,000 for their September edition. One surprising answer? Art.

It’s what billionaires like Bezos, Gates, and the Rockefellers have used to diversify for decades.

Why?

  • Contemporary art prices have appreciated 11.2% annually on average

  • And with one of the lowest correlations to stocks of any major asset class (Masterworks data, 1995-2024).

  • Ultra-high net worth collectors (>$50M) allocated 25% of their portfolios to art on average. (UBS, 2024)

Thanks to the world’s premiere art investing platform, now anyone can access works by legends like Banksy, Basquiat, and Picasso—without needing millions. Want in? Shares in new offerings can sell quickly but…

*Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd.

TECH

💻 OpenAI CFO Rules Out Near-Term IPO, Seeks Federal Backing for $600 Billion Data-Center Plan

(Credit: Andrew Neel/Pexels)

The Scoop: OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar ruled out a near-term IPO, stressing that the AI leader is prioritizing explosive growth and R&D over profitability while seeking federal guarantees to finance massive data-center expansions amid $600 billion in planned compute spending, the Wall Street Journal reports.

The Details:

  • Friar said an IPO “not on the cards right now,” saying OpenAI is focused on scaling operations rather than public-market pressures, though internal talks target a possible 2027 listing.

  • The company is in discussions with banks, private equity, and potentially the federal government to backstop debt for AI chip purchases, citing uncertain depreciation rates that inflate borrowing costs.

  • OpenAI projects $13 billion in 2025 revenue, with enterprise sales now 40% of the total—up from 30% earlier this year—as corporate clients in finance and healthcare shift from pilots to production.

What’s Next: A 2027 IPO remains on the table if growth sustains, but any federal involvement could spark debate over public support for private AI infrastructure amid competition with rivals like Anthropic.

Tech Roundup

🧠 AI

  • ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang warned that China is on track to win the AI race due to Beijing's energy subsidies fueling its semiconductor advancements. (AX)

  • Snap announced a $400 million deal with Perplexity AI to integrate the startup's conversational search engine into Snapchat's chat interface starting in early 2026. (BBG)

  • Apple is finalizing a $1 billion annual deal with Google to license a custom 1.2 trillion-parameter Gemini AI model, powering the revamped Siri's advanced reasoning and summarization features. (BBG)

  • Sandbar unveiled the AI-powered Stream Ring—a whisper-activated index-finger wearable for transcribing thoughts—priced at $249-$299 with summer 2026 shipping. (WIR)

  • Researchers leveraged AI to design fully functional antibodies de novo, accelerating discovery timelines and potentially eliminating animal testing in therapeutic development. (FT)

🤖 Hardware & Robotics

  • ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Israeli startup CaPow introduced Power-in-Motion technology to deliver continuous energy to robots, eliminating charging downtime and boosting efficiency in factories and warehouses. (YNET)

  • University of Oxford engineers unveiled "brain-free" soft fluidic robots powered solely by air pressure. (TEX)

  • Foxconn CEO Young Liu announced plans to deploy humanoid robots for AI server manufacturing at its Texas facility within months, accelerating U.S. expansion as a key Nvidia supplier. (NIK)

  • Northeastern University's RIVeR lab is pioneering an AI-powered autonomous wheelchair with an integrated robotic arm, enabling quadriplegic users to perform daily tasks. (NGN)

🚀 Defense & Space

  • ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Trump's proposed Golden Dome missile-defense shield—aimed at safeguarding the continental U.S. from drones and missiles—ranks among history's most audacious military endeavors, according to The Economist. (TE)

  • Satellite imagery captured China's two sixth-generation tailless stealth fighter prototypes at a secretive test base, signaling Beijing's rapid advances in next-generation air combat. (TWZ)

  • A federal jury convicted Ji Wang of economic espionage and trade-secret theft for stealing fiber-laser technology to start a China-backed firm under Beijing's Thousand Talents program. (DOJ)

💰Venture Capital

  • ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Wabi, a prompt-based "YouTube for apps" platform, raised $20 million in pre-seed funding from angels, led by Andreessen Horowitz. (TC)

  • Cybersecurity startup Daylight, founded by Unit 8200 alumni, secured $33 million in Series A funding led by Craft Ventures. (CT)

  • DualBird, a startup aiming to reshape the enterprise data landscape, raised $25 million in Series A funding, led by Lightspeed Venture Partners. (SA)

  • Digs, an AI startup streamlining home construction, raised $19.1 million in seed funding led by SPLY Capital. (BI)

FREEDOM

📢 Arctic Frost Scandal: Jack Smith Seized Trump’s Government-Issued Phone, Subpoenaed His Calls

(Credit: White House/Abe McNatt)

The Scoop: Attorney General Pam Bondi disclosed Tuesday that Special Counsel Jack Smith's Biden-era probe into the January 6, 2021, Capitol protests—codenamed "Arctic Frost"—involved the unprecedented seizure of President Donald Trump's government-issued phone by the administration, alongside subpoenas for his personal call records.

The Details:

  • During the Arctic Frost investigation, Smith's team obtained Trump's official White House phone directly from the Biden administration, a move Bondi described as "unprecedented."

  • Launched in 2022 as a precursor to Smith's case, Arctic Frost issued 197 subpoenas targeting 34 individuals and 163 entities, including banks, political groups, over 400 Republican organizations, and at least nine GOP lawmakers.

  • Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley revealed subpoenas hit Republicans, including Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Eric Schmitt (R-MO).

  • U.S. District Judge James Boasberg authorized the surveillance orders on lawmakers' communications, prompting bipartisan scrutiny over potential constitutional violations.

What’s Next: GOP lawmakers, led by Sens. Cruz and Schmitt, are ramping up impeachment proceedings against Judge Boasberg, branding Arctic Frost "Joe Biden’s Watergate" and demanding accountability for what they call an "egregious abuse of power."

Freedom Roundup

🏛️ Policy & Culture

  • Editor’s Pick: Trump’s crackdown on DEI has triggered widespread job cuts for inclusion specialists, slashing roles 13% at Russell 3000 firms to under 11,000. (FT)

  • Jim Jordan subpoenaed OpenAI over the company's engagements with foreign governments on rules curbing disinformation, warning that such compliance could erode Americans' free speech rights. (BBG)

  • Oklahoma Republican Sen. Shane Jett introduced bills mandating public universities to observe Oct. 14 as "Charlie Kirk Free Speech Day" and erect "Charlie Kirk Memorial Plazas" on campuses. (CF)

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DISCLAIMER: The CAPITAL newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The CAPITAL newsletter and its owner and operator, Josh Caplan, are not liable for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on this information. The CAPITAL newsletter is solely owned and independently operated by Josh Caplan, separate from any employer affiliations.

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