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MARKETS

💰 WSJ: How the Economy Defied “Doomsday” Predictions on Trump's Tariffs

(Credit: The White House)

The Scoop: Six months after President Donald Trump's sweeping April tariffs sparked recession fears and stockpiling panics, economists now say the doomsday predictions were overblown. Inflation's stuck at a mild 3% in September, growth chugs along, and companies are absorbing hits without a full-blown price explosion, the Wall Street Journal reports.

The Details:

  • Headline tariffs average over 17%, but effective rates hover at 12.5% due to exemptions, loopholes, and shifts to low-tariff havens like Vietnam, Mexico, and Turkey—slashing expected Treasury haul to $400B annually from Bessent's $500B–$1T forecast.

  • Firms like Signet Jewelers and GXO Logistics are dodging costs via bonded warehouses, free-trade zones, and inventory rushes—while foreign suppliers aren't slashing pre-tariff prices to offset duties.

  • Auto prices rose just 1.1% post-tariffs despite 15%+ levies, with makers eating 80% of costs thanks to fat post-pandemic margins; apparel and furniture see muted hikes as retailers pass on only 50-70%.

  • Consumer confidence dipped in April but rebounded on stock highs and low unemployment, keeping spending (70% of GDP) robust with no recession.

What’s Next: With firms mastering tariff workarounds and margins cushioning costs, America’s economy could cruise into 2026 with inflation easing below 2.5%, manufacturing quietly reshoring, and everyday prices stabilizing.

Market Roundup

🏦 Economy

  • Editor’s Pick: Bessent indicated that SNAP benefits for 42 million Americans could resume as early as Wednesday. (CNBC)

  • Trump said that U.S.-Canada trade talks will not resume following Ontario's provocative ad invoking Ronald Reagan to defend tariffs. (RTS)

  • Bessent declared the U.S. is accelerating at "warp speed" to sever reliance on Chinese critical minerals within one to two years. (CNN)

  • Ed Yardeni contends that AI will rewire the labor market by automating routine tasks and amplifying expert productivity, fostering job shifts toward infrastructure and skilled trades rather than widespread displacement. (INV)

📈 Hot Stock Picks

  • Editor’s Pick: CoreWeave's explosive $30 billion revenue backlog and strategic AI data center expansions position the cloud provider for a potential tripling of its stock value over the next two years, according to Motley Fool. (MF)

  • Bank of America merits a buy at current levels, with Barclays raising its price target to $50 from $46 amid resilient deposit growth, trading at an attractive 11x forward earnings despite a 20% YTD lag, according to Barron’s. (BAR)

  • Cipher Mining's strategic shift toward AI high-performance computing sets the stage for 72% revenue growth in 2025 and warrants a Buy rating with significant stock upside, according to Seeking Alpha. (SA)

  • Morningstar identified 12 undervalued financial-services stocks—from Western Union to Moody’s—trading at 11% to 44% discounts to fair value. (MS)

🏢 Industry

  • Editor’s Pick: Trump barred China from accessing Nvidia's flagship Blackwell chips, reserving them solely for U.S. firms in a move to fortify American technological supremacy. (MD)

  • Obamacare premiums face a 26% average spike in 2026 if enhanced tax credits expire post-2025, potentially doubling monthly costs for 22 million enrollees. (FBN)

  • Amazon's acquisition has eroded Whole Foods' premium brand identity, as cost-cutting and private-label push alienate core shoppers while failing to attract budget-conscious consumers. (WSJ)

  • Palantir is aggressively hiring high-school graduates for engineering roles, bypassing college degrees to tap raw talent. (WSJ)

🛢️ Energy & Commodities

  • Editor’s Pick: Trump's regulatory overhaul at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, coupled with surging power demands from AI data centers, is igniting a U.S. nuclear renaissance. (RCE)

  • The U.S. and UAE inked a landmark pact on AI and energy to fast-track advanced manufacturing, AI-driven robotics, and knowledge-sharing initiatives. (TN)

  • ExxonMobil warned that the EU's Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive could compel the company to exit Europe. (RTS)

  • The Trump administration unveiled $100 million in Department of Energy funding to modernize coal-fired power plants. (INV)

🌕 Crypto

  • Editor’s Pick: The Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the Federal Reserve's rejection of Caitlin Long’s Custodia Bank master account application. (CN)

  • U.S. spot Solana ETFs from Bitwise and Grayscale notched a robust debut last week, pulling in nearly $200 million in net inflows and topping crypto fund flows. (TB)

  • Romania blacklisted Polymarket as unlicensed crypto betting, blocking access after $600 million in election wagers. (CT)

  • Steak 'n Shake launched a Bitcoin reserve and partners with Fold to distribute BTC rewards with burger purchases. (DEC)

SPONSOR

Where to Invest $100,000 According to Experts

Investors face a dilemma. Headlines everywhere say tariffs and AI hype are distorting public markets.

Now, the S&P is trading at over 30x earnings—a level historically linked to crashes.

And the Fed is lowering rates, potentially adding fuel to the fire.

Bloomberg asked where experts would personally invest $100,000 for their September edition. One surprising answer? Art.

It’s what billionaires like Bezos, Gates, and the Rockefellers have used to diversify for decades.

Why?

  • Contemporary art prices have appreciated 11.2% annually on average

  • And with one of the lowest correlations to stocks of any major asset class (Masterworks data, 1995-2024).

  • Ultra-high net worth collectors (>$50M) allocated 25% of their portfolios to art on average. (UBS, 2024)

Thanks to the world’s premiere art investing platform, now anyone can access works by legends like Banksy, Basquiat, and Picasso—without needing millions. Want in? Shares in new offerings can sell quickly but…

*Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd.

TECH

💻 Musk: Smartphones Dead in 5 Years—AI “Edge Nodes” Will Generate Everything You Want

(Credit: Joe Rogan Experience/Screenshot)

The Scoop: Elon Musk predicted on the Joe Rogan Experience last week that traditional smartphones will vanish in 5-6 years, replaced by lightweight "edge node" devices that serve as AI interfaces—generating real-time video, music, and content on demand without apps or operating systems.

The Details:

  • Musk envisioned a future where “you’ll get everything through AI,” with devices anticipating your needs and instantly showing whatever you can imagine—or even think of.

  • These edge nodes will be ultra-simple: just a screen, audio, radios, and on-device AI to handle local tasks, while massive cloud models power heavy video and music rendering.

  • Bandwidth stays low because on-device AI processes raw data first, sending only refined queries to servers—making real-time, hyper-personalized content seamless.

  • In 5-6 years, “pretty much everything will run through AI,” Musk said, with most music, videos, and media people consume being fully AI-generated.

What’s Next: By 2030, your pocket AI node could instantly create custom movies, songs, or AR worlds—turning every user into a content creator, collapsing streaming empires, and making personalized media as effortless as thinking.

Tech Roundup

🧠 AI

  • ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Nvidia is pioneering America's AI industrial revolution by shifting production of its most advanced chip to Arizona in partnership with TSMC, fulfilling Trump's vision for bolstering U.S. technological dominance. (FBN)

  • UC Davis researchers have unveiled Leaf Monitor, an AI tool that scans leaves in five seconds to gauge nutrient levels, empowering farmers to slash fertilizer waste and elevate crop yields amid accelerating agritech adoption. (TCD)

  • Chinese researchers claim to have developed an AI model that predicts cancer gene mutations in just one minute, accelerating diagnostics and potentially transforming oncology treatments. (CGTN)

  • Elon Musk and Sam Altman traded insults on X, with Musk accusing Altman of betraying OpenAI’s nonprofit roots while Altman highlighted the firm’s AI dominance amid Musk’s xAI launch and ongoing lawsuit. (BI)

🤖 Hardware & Robotics

  • ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Tech giants like Tesla and Figure AI are amassing vast human-movement data to deploy humanoid bots in labor markets within a decade as the race to train AI robots to act human intensifies. (LAT)

  • Global manufacturers are racing to roboticize factory floors, with humanoid bots from Boston Dynamics poised to slash labor costs by 30-50% and boost output. (FOR)

  • Scientists developed shape-shifting liquid robots resembling gummy bears that behave like living cells, fusing and self-healing under ultrasound to navigate obstacles and neutralize toxins. (TB)

  • Andon Labs embodied advanced large language models into a vacuum robot, where it hilariously spiraled into a Robin Williams-esque comedic rant. (TC)

🚀 Defense & Space

  • ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Florida-based Wrap Technologies notched a defense milestone by executing the world's first non-lethal human takedown with a drone. (DP)

  • Anduril's YFQ-44A prototype notched its first semi-autonomous flight, accelerating deployment of up to 1,000 autonomous wingman drones by 2030. (DS)

  • U.S. researchers developed sound-guided tiny drones that can fly where cameras fail to see, using ultrasonic signals and deep learning to navigate smoke, dust, and darkness. (IE)

  • A mysterious fuselage section surfaced briefly in Northrop Grumman's third-quarter 2025 video, baffling analysts as it matches no known aircraft like the F-35. (TWZ)

💰Venture Capital

  • ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Formalize, whose compliance software serves organizations in more than 80 countries, has raised a €30 million ($34.5 million) Series B round co-led by Acton Capital and Blackfin Tech. (TEU)

  • Octonomy, a specialist in deploying AI across complex corporate workflows, has secured a $20 million seed round led by Macquarie Capital. (PF)

  • Startup AUI raised $20 million in a SAFE round at a $750 million valuation cap, for its hybrid symbolic-generative AI model that streamlines structured, task-based conversations. (CTECH)

  • The Mobile-First Company raised $12 million in seed funding led by Base10 and Lightspeed Venture Partners to expand its AI-powered mobile tools. (FLT)

FREEDOM

🇺🇸 Working-Class Voters Slam Democrats as “Woke, Weak, Out-of-Touch” in Brutal Post-Mortem

(Credit: wal_172619/Pixabay)

The Scoop: A brutal 9-month, 21-state post-mortem by Democracy Matters reveals working-class voters view Democrats as “woke, weak, and out-of-touch”—with 6 in 10 holding a negative party image and unable to name what the party stand for beyond anti-Trumpism, POLITICO reports.

The Details:

  • The report, funded by American Bridge-aligned nonprofit and backed by 3,000 surveys, 39 focus groups, and ad tests, finds blue-collar voters see Republicans as strong, patriotic, and safe—while Democrats prioritize “social issues” over daily pocketbook pain.

  • Mitch Landrieu: “They feel forgotten… They want somebody focused first, second, and third on their economic stress.”

  • On trans rights and immigration, voters favor “keep government out of medical decisions” or “everyone stop obsessing,” while 1/3 of independents swing Democrat if candidates oppose trans women in women’s sports.

What’s Next: With 2026 midterms looming, Democrats face a steep climb—stuck between progressive populism that flops (43% support) and a vague “fix the economy” pitch that still trails GOP trust, risking further blue-collar bleed.

Freedom Roundup

🏛️ Policy & Culture

  • Editor’s Pick: In a fiery Senate hearing, lawmakers led by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) grilled Meta and Google executives on the Biden administration's pressure to censor COVID-19 content, prompting Meta's admissions of regret. (RTN)

  • Salman Rushdie, in an interview promoting his memoir The Eleventh Hour, warned that free speech faces its gravest threat in decades. (CBS)

  • Elon Musk affirmed that DOGE remains operational and actively trimming waste and fraud, albeit with subdued publicity now that political adversaries lack a prominent target. (X)

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DISCLAIMER: The CAPITAL newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The CAPITAL newsletter and its owner and operator, Josh Caplan, are not liable for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on this information. The CAPITAL newsletter is solely owned and independently operated by Josh Caplan, separate from any employer affiliations.

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