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Nvidia's Moment of Truth

Good Morning,
I’m Josh Caplan—Welcome to the inaugural edition of CAPITAL, the newsletter that delivers the most news on tech, markets, and freedom.
Kicking off with today’s must-know news: All eyes are on Nvidia ahead of its quarterly earnings today. Also, SpaceX’s Starship launched its ninth test flight, reusing hardware for the first time and achieving stage separation with the upper stage reaching space, but both stages were lost before completing their flight objectives. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has intensified its crackdown on Harvard by directing federal agencies to cancel all remaining contracts with the university.
MARKET & ECONOMY
Economy & Macro
Dow Jones jumped 740.58 points, 1.78%, to 42,343.65 after Trump delayed 50% EU tariffs. (CNBC)
U.S. consumer confidence rose 12.3 points to 98 in May, a four-year high, due to economic optimism and tariff truce. (BBG)
Texas factory activity stabilized in May, with near-zero production, mixed manufacturing metrics, and optimistic future outlook. (DF)
Trump monitors "positive" U.S.-EU trade talks, delaying 50% EU tariffs until July 9. (YF)
Japan to allocate $6.3B to counter Trump's tariff economic impact. (JT)
Japan offers to buy billions of dollars in U.S. semiconductor products during tariff talks. (RTS)
ECB's Nagel says 2% inflation target near, but rate moves remain unpredictable. (BBG)
JPMorgan's Mike Feroli says Fed may cut rates by year-end as consumer confidence peaks, boosted by U.S.-China tariff pause. (CNBC)
USMC trade pact review starts Q4 2025, Mexico says. (RTS)
Only eight S&P 500 firms delayed earnings forecasts despite tariff concerns. (MW)
Stocks, Fixed Income & Funds
Nvidia’s Q1 China revenue projected at $6.2B, 14% of total, per Wall Street analyst estimates. (YF)
Gene Munster forecasts Nvidia’s earnings may take $15B hit from chip curbs, but AI demand could drive 2026 growth. (INV)
Asian stocks rose Wednesday, led by tech, after Trump’s EU tariff delay. (INV)
Nippon Steel is set to finalize its $55-per-share acquisition of U.S. Steel. (CNBC)
Citadel Securities’ Q1 2025 profits up 70% to $1.7B, trading revenues rose 45%. (FT)
Xiaomi’s Q1 revenue hit $15.5B, beating estimates with strong EV and smartphone growth. (WSJ)
Okta’s Q1 EPS 86 cents, revenue $688M, up 12%, but shares fell 11% on unchanged guidance. (ZER)
CoreWeave stock rose 15% to $118.11 despite Barclays downgrade. (BRN)
PDD Holdings, Temu's Chinese parent, Q1 profit dropped 50% due to U.S. tariffs, shares fell 14%. (WSJ)
Scotiabank’s Q2 net income dipped to $2.03B, credit loss provisions rose to $1.4B. (GM)
23andMe to delist from Nasdaq after selling assets to Regeneron for $256M. (GN)
Jefferies upgraded Southwest Airlines to Hold, citing operational confidence. (INV)
U.S. Treasury yields fell: 30-year at 4.943%, 10-year at 4.44%, 2-year at 3.979%. (CNBC)
Japan’s 40-year bond auction demand: weakest since July 2024 (BBG).
Aramco priced $1.5B five-year bond at 80 basis points over Treasuries. (RTS)
2025 Morningstar report finds of 4,000 U.S. ETFs only 461 suitable for long-term investment. (ETF)
Currencies & Commodities
China's central bank now manages yuan appreciation risks as the dollar declines. (BBG)
DXY rose 0.75% to 99.50, rebounding after Trump's EU tariff delay, but bears persist (FXS)
CAD fell, USD/CAD hit 1.3750 as trade news dominates; Canada GDP data looms. (FXS)
Oil is up 0.7%, Brent at $64.54, WTI at $61.33, on Russia, Iran, Venezuela supply fears. (INV)
Goldman Sachs predicts Non-OPEC supply to cut oil prices to $56 Brent, $52 WTI in 2026.(OP)
Chinese steel, aluminum, copper surplus may pressure U.S. metal prices. (OP)
U.S. gold imports to Switzerland hit record high in April post-tariff exemption. (RTS)
Ultra-wealthy move gold to Singapore, preferring bars for security. (CNBC)
Harmony Gold buys MAC Copper for $1.03B to expand copper assets. (MNG)
Japan pauses rice sales, easing prices and cost-of-living concerns pre-election. (BBG)
Bitcoin & Crypto
Trump Media and Technology Group to raise $2.5B for Bitcoin investments. (GW)
Stablecoin issuer Circle launched its IPO to raise $624M at a $5.65B valuation. (CNBC)
Cantor's Bitcoin lending starts, financing FalconX and Maple Finance, targeting $2B (BW)
Strive, Vivek Ramaswamy's firm, raised $750M for Bitcoin-focused strategies. (PRN)
BlackRock’s portfolio: increased iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) holdings by 25%, from 1.7M to 2.1M shares. (CT)
KindlyMD bought 21 Bitcoin for $2.3M ahead of Nakamoto Holdings merger. (CD)
Japanese energy firm Remixpoint approved a ¥1B Bitcoin buy, boosting its holdings to ~$84M. (CN)
Steak 'n Shake reports saving 50% on processing fees by accepting Bitcoin. (BM)
BUSINESS
Tech
Banking & Finance
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, facing partner criticism, launched a probe to silence internal leakers. (WSJ)
JPMorgan aims to grow its 10% share of affluent Americans’ investments, targeting those with $750K-$3M in assets. (CNBC)
Ray Dalio won't advise Indonesia's sovereign wealth fund, despite a prior announcement. (BBG)
Citi's Polish unit to sell its consumer banking business to Velobank. (RTS)
Industrials & Transportation
General Motors invests $888M to develop next-generation V-8 engines at its New York facility. (DFP)
Tesla's April sales in Europe and U.K. fell 49% to 7,261 vehicles, while Chinese EV makers like BYD rose 59% to 15,300 units despite EU tariffs. (TC)
Volvo Cars to cut 3,000 jobs, primarily white-collar roles. (AW)
Pony.ai to launch robotaxi fleet in Dubai by 2025. (JA)
Germany's KIRA project begins real-world road tests of its robotaxi vehicles. (ELT)
WeRide to expand robotaxi operations to Saudi Arabia. (WR)
Software logistics giant WiseTech acquires E2open for $2.1B. (TT)
Pratt & Whitney workers approve new contract, ending strike and securing jobs in Connecticut. (RTS)
Energy & Resources
Gulf of Mexico oil output is projected to increase from 1.8 million bpd to 2.4 million bpd by 2027. (OP)
Supreme Court rejects Apache Stronghold's appeal to stop Arizona's Resolution Copper mine development. (NBC)
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait reveal "highly significant" oil discovery in the "Partitioned Zone." (RZ)
Greenland calls on U.S. and Europe to invest in its critical minerals to counter China's dominance. (MNG)
Bahrain is seeking liquefied natural gas imports. (BBG)
Kent and N&P joint venture secures Aramco contract to bolster Saudi energy infrastructure. (MED)
NexGen reports high-grade uranium results from drilling at PCE target in Saskatchewan. (MNG)
Healthcare & Science
Seven top U.S. pharma firms reported Q1 revenue drops. (FP)
Eli Lilly to acquire SiteOne for $1B, targeting non-opioid pain drug development. (RTS)
FDA pauses Rocket Pharma's gene therapy trial after patient death. (GO)
Joe Lonsdale warns China’s biotech espionage poses a "huge crisis" for U.S. innovation. (IT)
FDA approves Sanofi's meningococcal vaccine for infant use. (CL)
Drug developers are unlikely to fully return to U.S. equity markets until next year. (BBG)
Entertainment & Media
Apple acquired RAC7, the two-person studio behind the Apple Arcade hit Sneaky Sasquatch. (DT)
California's film industry faces high costs, convoluted credits, and permitting hurdles, losing edge to rivals, per Milken Institute study. (THR)
YouTube leads TV viewing with 12.4% share in Nielsen’s April 2025 report. (TVT)
AMC, Marcus Corporation, and Cinemark shares surged after a record-breaking box office over Memorial Day Weekend. (CNBC)
C-SPAN grapples with funding crisis as cord-cutting erodes revenue. (DL)
Bloomberg News shifts inclusion strategy, dropping focus on underrepresented groups. (SMF)
Sports
Fox Sports’ first Indianapolis 500 broadcast drew 7 million viewers, the race’s largest U.S. audience in 17 years. (SB)
Lamine Yamal inks long-term Barcelona contract, extending until 2031. (ESPN)
Jack Ma, Karlie Kloss, and others buy a stake in New York Liberty for a record $450M. (SPO)
CBS Sports secures U.S. broadcasting rights for the UEFA Women’s Champions League starting in 2025-26. (SB)
Kansas City Current owners Angie and Chris Long acquire Danish women’s football club HB Køge. (KCC)
The Premier Lacrosse League and Women’s Lacrosse League secure a multiyear deal naming U.S. Bank as their official banking and wealth management partner. (SPO)
Real Estate
President Trump announced plans to take Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public while retaining government oversight. (AXS)
Chinese developer Wanda plans to sell 48 shopping malls in a $6.9B deal. (NIK)
Manhattan luxury home contracts hit a four-year weekly high. (TRD)
Times Square’s ex-Ernst & Young HQ, known for its red sign, will become 1,250 homes from a 38-story office tower. (NYP)
Related Group secured $230.8M from Apollo to build Broward County’s tallest building. (CO)
Dana Point, CA, oceanfront home sold for $34M, setting a second record for the wealthy town. (WSJ)
TECH
AI & Frontier Tech
SpaceX's Starship Flight 9 launched, reused its booster, but both exploded after losing control. (SPA)
Anthropic introduces a voice mode for its Claude AI model. (TV)
Meta restructures its AI team to strengthen competition with OpenAI and Google. (AXS)
Mistral introduced an API enabling AI agents to execute Python, generate images, perform RAG, and more. (DE)
Hermeus' uncrewed Quarterhorse Mk 1 test aircraft successfully completes its first flight. (TA)
New research indicates AI could be reducing entry-level tech jobs. (TC)
TSMC plans to establish a chip design hub in Germany. (WSJ)
Civitai’s ban on real people content significantly disrupts the nonconsensual AI porn ecosystem. (404)
WordPress has created a dedicated AI team. (TC)
AI systems for documenting outpatient visits are gaining features and expanding into hospitals, possibly recording doctor appointments. (WSJ)
30% of U.S. online adults anticipate engaging with companies via AI virtual assistants. (TD)
Veho and Rivr started an Austin pilot using Rivr’s stair-climbing robot for doorstep package delivery. (TC)
Nicolai Tangen warns that employees who resist AI adoption have no future at Norway's $1.8T sovereign wealth fund. (BBG)
David Sacks predicts that within five years, robot ownership could become widespread. (FOX)
Funding & Venture Capital
Neuralink raised $600M valuing the brain implant company at $9B before the new investment. (SEM)
Cathay Innovation raised $1B for an AI-focused fund, Europe's biggest VC close this year. (PB)
Chamath Palihapitiya announced plans to build a 1 GW AI data center in Tonopah, Arizona. (X)
Founders Fund invests $49B in Bulgarian satellite maker EnduroSat. (BBG)
Samsung is considering a $100M investment in Exo, a medical imaging startup. (TFN)
Matthias Niessner, one of Europe’s top AI researchers, raised a $13M seed to crack the “holy grail” of models (TC).
Logistics startup Pallet raised $27M to scale its automation technology. (PYM)
AI data center Laredo secures a $7.1B construction loan. (CRE)
Joby Aviation secures $250M from Toyota in first tranche of strategic investment. (VCD)
Pillar Biosciences secures $34.5M, including Illumina's strategic investment. (PRN)
Superblocks secures $23M to enable secure, AI-driven enterprise app development. (SUH)
Neuron Factory, an AI startup transforming construction with innovative software, raised $6M in a seed funding round. (FIN)
Hardware & Devices
Qualcomm study reveals that Apple’s C1 modem falls short of the performance of its two latest flagship modems. (AA)
Apple’s iPhone camera is set to upgrade from a 48MP to a 200MP sensor. (9T5)
Chinese memory giant CXMT plans to shift to DDR5 and HBM3 production, aiming to compete directly with Samsung. (WCC)
Chinese firms Hygon and Sugon merged to create a vertically integrated supercomputing powerhouse, countering U.S. sanctions. (TH)
Tech startup Sparkle’s ‘Thundermage’ concept proposes using Thunderbolt as a GPU port. (PCW)
Innovative PCIe card enables desktop PCs to support up to 28 M.2 SSDs. (PCW)
Software & Apps
Apple plans to launch a dedicated video game app for its devices. (BBG)
WhatsApp is now officially available for iPad. (MW)
OpenAI may soon enable “sign in with ChatGPT” for third-party apps. (TC)
Apple reports its App Store prevented $2B in fraudulent transactions last year and $9B over the past five years. (TC)
Cybersecurity & Privacy
Dutch intelligence revealed Russian hacking group Laundry Bear was behind last year's cyberattacks, including the national police. (TR)
Autonomous driving company TuSimple transmitted sensitive self-driving data to China, violating a U.S. national security agreement. (TC)
Iranian national pleaded guilty to involvement in a ransomware attack targeting Baltimore. (SW)
Cybersecurity flaw in Cisco devices exploited to create a botnet compromising thousands of systems. (TRA)
Web3 & Decentralization
Jack Dorsey’s Block unveils Bitcoin payment integration for Square terminals (BBG)
William Duplessie, linked to a suspect in the kidnapping and torture of a crypto investor in a NYC townhouse, surrendered to NYPD and faces charges. (ABC News)
Cobie’s ICO platform Sonar launches with Plasma, aiming to raise $50M at a $500M token valuation. (TB)
MetaMask wallet introduces native Solana support through its browser extension. (TB)
Gemini reports that memecoins are driving a global surge in new crypto investors. (DC)
StarkWare unveils consumer-grade ZK prover hardware. (BW)
Rumble Cloud partners with TRON DAO to provide data storage. (CS)
POLICY & LAW
Economic & Tax Policy
President Trump's tariff revenue exceeds $22B in May, surpassing April's $17.4B. (YF)
Sen. Lummis announces President Trump supports her Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill. (BM)
Judge bars feds from withholding state funds in NYC congestion pricing dispute. (NYD)
CFPB plans to repeal its open banking regulation, deemed “unlawful.” (HW)
Business & Tech Regulations
Texas Gov. Abbott signs law to enforce age verification on Apple, Google app stores. (RTS)
Europe attempts to force age verification onto Pornhub and other adult sites. (AT)
UK envoy urged a tech alliance with the U.S., citing the threat from China. (BBG)
Trump administration purges nearly all top CISA officials. (CSD)
Walmart fined $14K for shipping realistic toy guns to NY, violating state law. (NBC)
Healthcare & Education Rules
CDC withdraws COVID vaccine recommendation for pregnant women and healthy children. (X)
Trump administration asks federal agencies to cancel remaining Harvard contracts. (FOX)
California makes rule change to girls' track and field championship after President Trump's social media post threatening to cut federal funding. (FOX)
Government Waste & Accountability
Woke Overreach & Free Speech
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DISCLAIMER: The CAPITAL newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The CAPITAL newsletter and its owner and operator, Josh Caplan, are not liable for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on this information. The CAPITAL newsletter is solely owned and independently operated by Josh Caplan, separate from any employer affiliations.
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