Sam Altman's Nuclear Option

Welcome back!

Here’s your must-read news this morning:

• Oil prices still rising

• OpenAI-Microsoft tensions 

• Trump bill details released

I’ve got all the details for you, so let’s dive in.

— Josh

MARKETS

🛢️ Oil Prices Surge, Stock Futures Drop as Israel-Iran War Intensifies

The Scoop: Oil prices climbed over 2% Tuesday, with Brent crude rising 1.6% to $74.40 a barrel and WTI climbing 1.87% to $73.11, as escalating Iran-Israel tensions, amplified by President Donald Trump’s call for Tehran’s evacuation, fueled fears of global oil supply disruptions. Stock futures fell as investors weighed the conflict’s economic impact.

The Details:

• Israel struck Iran’s state broadcaster, the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, and oil infrastructure in Shahran and southern Tehran, causing fires and energy disruptions.

• Iran’s missiles targeted civilian areas in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and a Haifa oil refinery.

• Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, supplies 4.5% of global oil with 3.3 million barrels daily, heightening supply concerns.

• Trump pushed for a nuclear deal, suggesting Iran’s openness to talks could ease sanctions and increase oil exports.

• OPEC+ cut its 2026 non-OPEC+ supply growth forecast, anticipating strong global demand.

• Stock futures dropped Tuesday, with Dow futures down 301 points (0.7%), S&P 500 futures off 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.58%.

What’s Next: Markets remain on edge for further Iran-Israel developments, with supply risks driving higher energy costs and inflation. Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rate decision, likely unchanged per CME’s FedWatch, faces headwinds from rising oil prices and equity declines, reducing rate-cut prospects despite Trump’s push for monetary easing.

Markets Roundup

🏦 Economy & Policy

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: At the G7 summit, President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer finalized a U.S.-U.K. trade deal, scrapping tariffs on British aerospace, cutting auto tariffs to 10% from 25%, and maintaining steel tariffs at 25%, below the U.S.'s global 50% rate.

• Trump expressed optimism about securing a trade deal with Canada within days, stating, “We’re going to accomplish a lot.” (CTV)

• Israel's shekel surged 3.6% to 3.50 per dollar, its strongest gain since October 2023, while stocks and bonds rose as investors grew optimistic about the country's long-term prospects despite escalating tensions with Iran. (TOI)

• New York’s manufacturing index fell to -16 from -9.2 in May, missing economists’ expectations of -6.0 due to weaker orders and inflation, though firms grew optimistic about future conditions, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported.(MS)

• The European Commission dismissed reports that the European Union would accept a 10% U.S. tariff on EU goods, labeling such claims "speculative." (INV)

📈 Stock Market

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: BofA Securities downgraded CoreWeave to Neutral from Buy, raising its price target to $185 from $76, as the cloud computing stock’s 145% surge post-Q1 results and 54.7x EV/EBITDA multiple signal a premium valuation despite strong growth. (INV)

• Political beliefs are driving a divide in investing, with conservatives favoring traditional returns and rejecting ESG funds, while liberals embrace socially conscious strategies. (WSJ)

• The Justice Department is intensifying efforts to dismantle pump-and-dump scams targeting thousands of U.S. investors, where obscure Chinese stocks are hyped via social media to inflate prices before insiders sell. (WSJ)

• Millennium Management, which manages $75 billion in assets, is negotiating to sell a 10-15% stake in its management company, valued at $14 billion, with Goldman Sachs’ Petershill Partners advising. (FT)

• Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, announced that it will dual list on NYSE Texas, effective today. (RTS)

🏢 Industry & Deals

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Meta announced it will start showing ads on WhatsApp, using personal information from Facebook and Instagram to target them. (INV)

• The Trump Organization announced a new mobile phone service plan and a $499 smartphone, slated for release later this year. (CNBC)

• All eligible U.S. states and territories have finalized a $7.4 billion settlement with Purdue Pharma and the Sackler family behind OxyContin. (ABC)

🌕 Crypto

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Justin Sun's Tron plans to go public in the U.S. through a reverse merger with Nasdaq-listed SRM Entertainment, with the new entity focused on holding Tron's native currency. (FT)

• JPMorgan has filed a trademark for JPMD, a potential blockchain-based asset, with speculation suggesting it may be linked to a stablecoin. (TB)

• Trump Media and Technology filed to launch a Truth Social Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF, which will directly hold 75% in Bitcoin and 25% in Ether. (DJ)

• CoinShares has filed for SEC approval to launch a Solana ETF, joining VanEck and 21Shares in their efforts to bring a spot Solana exchange-traded fund to market. (TS)

• X suspends Solana-based memecoin launchpad Pump.fun, its founder Alon Cohen, and other memecoin accounts without disclosing reasons for the mass suspension. (TB)

  
  

TECH

💻 OpenAI Weighs Antitrust Battle with Microsoft

The Scoop: Tensions between OpenAI and Microsoft have hit a fever pitch over OpenAI’s $3 billion acquisition of AI startup Windsurf, with disputes over control, cloud rights, and intellectual property threatening to fracture their high-stakes AI partnership, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The Details:

• OpenAI’s acquisition of Windsurf, an AI coding startup, has sparked conflict, as Microsoft seeks access to its IP to bolster GitHub Copilot, per The Information.

• OpenAI is pushing to revise contract clauses granting Microsoft exclusive cloud hosting rights via Azure, aiming for greater independence.

• Microsoft, having invested nearly $14 billion in OpenAI since 2019, is resisting changes and seeking a larger stake in OpenAI’s restructured for-profit entity.

• OpenAI executives have discussed accusing Microsoft of anticompetitive behavior, potentially seeking federal regulatory review.

• OpenAI is diversifying compute sources, partnering with Google Cloud, while Microsoft integrates rival AI models into Copilot.

What’s Next: OpenAI and Microsoft face a critical juncture as negotiations over Windsurf’s IP, cloud rights, and equity stakes intensify. The outcome could reshape their partnership and OpenAI’s $20 billion funding goal, hinging on its public-benefit corporation transition by year-end.

Tech Roundup

🧠 AI

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s vision for “sovereign AI,” encouraging European nations to develop independent AI infrastructure aligned with their cultural values and national priorities, is gaining momentum, with the UK, France, and Germany investing heavily to lessen dependence on U.S. tech giants. (RTS)

• The Defense Department has inked a one-year, $200 million contract with OpenAI to leverage its artificial intelligence models. (CNBC)

• Alibaba unveiled its new Qwen3 AI models, tailored for Apple’s MLX architecture, enabling seamless operation across iPhone, iPad, MacBook, and Mac. (RTS)

• Meta is testing AI-generated video ads that transform product images into multi-scene commercials with music and text. (BBG)

• H&M aims to harness AI to revamp key stores and shutter others, blending digital and physical shopping to compete with online rivals like Shein and Temu. (WSJ)

🤖 Hardware & Robotics

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Chinese researchers have successfully conducted the country's first clinical trial of a brain-computer interface, making China the second nation after the U.S. to achieve this milestone, Chinese state media claims. (BBG)

• A surgeon in Orlando, Florida, conducted the first FDA-approved trial of robotic telesurgery, remotely operating on a prostate cancer patient in Angola, Africa. (ABC)

• Denmark’s armed forces have deployed four uncrewed robotic sailboats, called “Voyagers,” for a three-month trial to patrol Danish and NATO waters in the Baltic and North Seas. (AP)

• Engineers at the University of California, San Diego, have developed a 3D-printed soft robot that harnesses pressurized air to drive its six flexible, insect-like legs, allowing it to waddle forward smoothly. (SNE)

• China’s robotics market is projected to surge from $47 billion in 2024 to $108 billion by 2028, growing at a 23% annual rate and reinforcing the nation’s leadership in the rapidly expanding sector, according to Morgan Stanley. (SCMP)

🚀 Defense & Space

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: France closed four Israeli company booths at the Paris Airshow, citing the display of so-called offensive weapons, a decision Israel denounced amid its ongoing conflict with Iran. (RTS)

• China successfully conducted a pad abort test for its Mengzhou crew spacecraft, a key step in advancing its ambitious plans for a manned lunar landing by the end of the decade. (SN)

• German defense tech startup Helsing raised $630 million in a funding round led by Spotify founder Daniel Ek’s investment fund Prima Materia, valuing the company at $12.6 billion and cementing its status as one of Europe’s most valuable startups. (FT)

• United Launch Alliance postponed the second flight of Amazon’s Project Kuiper satellites on Monday due to a rocket booster issue, delaying the internet constellation’s deployment. (SP)

• The U.S. Army is adopting cost-effective technologies like drones and AI, phasing out obsolete systems to enhance efficiency on autonomous battlefields, a report details. (CNBC)

💰 Venture Capital & Deals

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Cardinal Robotics secured $800 million to cover upfront manufacturing costs, enabling the company to lease cleaning robots to businesses for an affordable monthly fee. (TI)

• Juniper Square, a provider of investment management tools for real estate, private equity, and venture capital firms, secured $130 million in a funding round led by Ribbit Capital, valuing the company at $1.1 billion. (BBG)

• Pano AI, a startup for AI-driven wildfire detection, secured $44 million in a Series B funding round led by Giant Ventures. (GNW)

• AndrenaM, an AI-driven sonar data startup founded by a former SpaceX engineer, secured $10 million in a 36-hour seed round led by First Round Capital. (BI)

• WorkWhile, an AI-driven platform connecting businesses with hourly workers, secured $23 million in Series B funding led by Rethink Impact. (PR)

• Alta, a startup focused on AI-powered personal shopping and styling, secured $11 million in seed funding, with Menlo Ventures leading the round. (PRN)

FREEDOM

📜 Senate Panel Unveils Tax and Medicaid Details For Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill"

The Scoop: The Senate Finance Committee unveiled its portion of President Donald Trump’s sweeping “Big, beautiful bill” on Monday.

The Details:

• The committee, led by Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID), made the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent, cut “Green New Deal” spending, and targeted waste in programs while preserving aid for the vulnerable.

• The Senate panel capped the SALT deduction at $10,000, undercutting the House’s $40,000 cap.

• The Medicaid cuts deepen House reductions, halting provider tax rate hikes for non-ACA expansion states and lowering rates in expansion states to 3.5%.

• The bill set the Child Tax Credit at $2,200 permanently, lower than the House’s $2,500 temporary increase until 2029.

• Green energy tax credits face slower rollbacks than the House’s plan, with some extended 90-180 days or a full year post-enactment.

• It also eliminates taxes on tips and overtime pay.

• The panel proposed a $5 trillion debt limit hike, $1 trillion above the House’s, despite objections from Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY).

What’s Next: Sens. Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Susan Collins (R-ME) voiced concerns over Medicaid provider tax changes, while Sens. Rick Scott (R-FL) and Bill Cassidy (R-LA) remain noncommittal. Nonetheless, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) plans to keep senators in Washington during the July 4 recess to meet the deadline.

Freedom Roundup

🏛️ Economic & Education Policy

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced that the USDOT will withhold funding from states refusing to cooperate with federal immigration enforcement. (X)

• The Trump administration successfully dismissed a lawsuit by two unions attempting to block the withholding of $400 million in federal funds from Columbia University, with the court ruling the unions lacked legal standing to challenge the decision. (BBG)

• Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN) introduced a bill to block federal housing grants to sanctuary cities like Los Angeles that fail to comply with federal immigration laws. (FOX)

• A federal judge deferred a ruling on whether to uphold a block against Trump’s proclamation prohibiting international students from studying at Harvard. (BG)

💻 Business & Tech Policy

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Trump said he would likely extend a deadline for China-based ByteDance to divest the U.S. assets of TikTok. (RTS)

• A Dutch court upheld a 2021 consumer watchdog ruling, affirming that Apple abused its dominant position by imposing unfair conditions on dating app providers in its App Store. (RTS)

• Italy’s antitrust regulator initiated a probe into Chinese AI startup DeepSeek, scrutinizing its alleged failure to disclose that its AI system may produce inaccurate, misleading, or fabricated information. (RTS)

• New York has become the first U.S. state to mandate that employers disclose whether AI contributed to workforce reductions. (HRGV)

💬 Free Speech & Woke Overreach

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Juneteenth celebrations nationwide have been scaled back this year due to funding shortages, as companies and municipalities reassess support for DEI initiatives. (AP)

• British police forces are adopting software to create a unified intelligence platform, merging sensitive personal data including race, health, and political views, with Bedfordshire Police planning to expand the “Nectar” system beyond its pilot, a leaked memo reveals. (RTN)

• Nick Trimmer dissects how TikTok’s PR team masterminded a propaganda coup through “gaslighting, gatekeeping, and girlbossing,” shifting focus from national security to free speech, to delay a U.S. ban. (TFE)

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DISCLAIMER: The CAPITAL newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The CAPITAL newsletter and its owner and operator, Josh Caplan, are not liable for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on this information. The CAPITAL newsletter is solely owned and independently operated by Josh Caplan, separate from any employer affiliations.