The Jobs Most and Least at Risk from AI

Welcome back!

Here’s your must-read news this morning:

• New U.S. tariffs 

• AI impact on jobs

• UK censorship files 

I’ve got all the details for you, so let’s dive in.

— Josh

MARKETS

💰 Trump Raises Canada Tariffs to 35%, Sets New Rates for Numerous Countries

The Scoop: Ahead of the August 1 deadline, President Donald Trump on Thursday signed an executive order raising tariffs on Canadian goods from 25% to 35% over fentanyl smuggling concerns, while also modifying reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries, ranging from 10% to 41%, to address trade deficits and national security.

The Details:

• Canada faces a 35% tariff on non-USMCA goods, with Syria at 41%, Laos/Myanmar at 40%, Switzerland at 39%, and South Africa at 30%; transshipped goods incur a 40% penalty to curb evasion.

• Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher tariffs for Mexico, maintaining the existing 25% tariff on non-USMCA-compliant goods, effective from August 1.

• Thailand and Malaysia saw tariffs reduced to 19% (from 36% and 24%), Taiwan to 20% (from 32%), and unlisted nations face a 10% baseline duty.

• All goods transshipped to evade duties face an additional 40% tariff.

What’s Next: Trump’s tariff strategy aims to bolster U.S. economic strength and address Canada’s role in the fentanyl crisis, potentially paving the way for stronger trade agreements. Negotiations with Canada and other nations could foster balanced trade relationships, enhancing USMCA cooperation.

Markets Roundup

🏦 Economy & Policy

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: The "Trump accounts" for newborns, part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, could grow to $1.9 million by age 28 with maximum contributions, the Treasury Office of Tax Analysis projects. (FBN)

• China's factory activity hit a six-month low in July with the official manufacturing PMI falling to 49.3 from 49.7, below economists' forecasts of 49.7, signaling contraction despite a U.S. tariff truce. (SCMP)

• The U.S. dollar is poised for its first monthly gain of 2025, nearing a two-month high, as a resilient U.S. economic growth bolsters the currency. (RTS)

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is compiling a list of candidates to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with an announcement expected by year's end. (YF)

📈 Stock Market

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Figma's shares surged 250% in their NYSE debut on Thursday, closing at $115.50 after pricing at $33, valuing the design software company at $56.3 billion. (CNBC)

• Amazon reported Q2 earnings of $1.68 per share and revenue of $167.7 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.33 per share and $162.09 billion. (YF)

• Apple reported Q3 earnings that beat expectations, posting earnings per share of $1.57 against $1.43 forecasted and revenue of $94.04 billion versus $89.53 billion expected. (CNBC)

• Mastercard reported Q2 earnings per share of $4.15, surpassing analyst estimates of $4.03, with revenue of $8.13 billion exceeding the $7.93 billion forecast. (INV)

• Coinbase reported a Q2 net income of $1.43 billion, or $5.14 per share, but revenue of $1.5 billion missed analysts’ $1.6 billion estimate due to weaker trading volumes. (PFN)

🏢 Industry

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Panama's government threatened to nationalize two key ports, potentially derailing a $22.8 billion deal to sell them to a BlackRock and MSC-led consortium. (NYP)

• Trump sent letters to 17 pharmaceutical CEOs, demanding they lower U.S. drug prices within 60 days to match global rates, citing an executive order to end "exorbitant" pricing. (FBN)

• Jaguar Land Rover CEO Adrian Mardell, who led the company’s failed woke rebrand and shift to electric vehicles, will retire. (TEL)

• Moderna announced a 10% workforce reduction amid declining COVID-19 vaccine sales. (BPD)

💵 Energy & Commodities

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Trump's lightning reactor program, aimed at fast-tracking nuclear reactor construction, has sparked renewed investor interest and optimism in the U.S. nuclear sector. (RTS)

• The Trump administration plans to expand price guarantees for U.S. critical minerals producers to reduce reliance on Chinese supplies. (RTS)

• U.S. crude oil production reached a record high of 13.488 million barrels per day in May, driven by strong output in Texas and New Mexico. (OP)

• Helion Energy began construction on the world’s first commercial fusion power plant in Malaga, Washington, aiming to deliver clean, low-cost electricity to Microsoft’s data centers by 2028. (IE)

🌕 Crypto

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: The SEC unveiled "Project Crypto," an initiative to modernize securities regulations and enable blockchain-based trading. (CT)

• Tether reported a $4.9 billion net profit in Q2 2025 and invested $4 billion in U.S.-based initiatives. (CD)

• Coinbase will launch tokenized stocks and prediction markets in the coming months, aiming to create an "everything exchange." (CNBC)

• Visa expanded its stablecoin settlement platform to include Stellar and Avalanche blockchains and added support for three stablecoins; PayPal USD, Global Dollar, and EURC. (VIR)
  

TECH

💻 Microsoft Study Reveals the Jobs Most and Least at Risk from AI Disruption

The Scoop: A Microsoft study, analyzing 200,000 anonymized Bing Copilot conversations, reveals that generative AI threatens desk jobs such as translators and writers, while manual roles like machinery operators remain safer.

The Details:

• Most Affected Jobs: Interpreters/translators, historians, sales reps, writers/authors, customer service reps, CNC tool programmers, telephone operators, ticket agents/travel clerks, broadcast announcers/radio DJs.

• Least Affected Jobs: Dredge operators, bridge/lock tenders, water treatment plant operators, foundry mold/coremakers, rail-track maintenance operators, pile driver operators, floor sanders/finishers, orderlies, motorboat operators, logging equipment operators.

• Researchers, led by Kiran Tomlinson, used an AI applicability score to gauge task overlap, finding AI excels in research, writing, and communication but doesn’t fully replace any role.

What's Next: As generative AI advances, white-collar roles are poised for major transformation, with routine tasks increasingly automated, pushing job functions toward oversight and creative problem-solving. Meanwhile, demand for skilled trades is surging, as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has emphasized, highlighting the need for a workforce to support the expanding requirements of AI, technology, and infrastructure.

Tech Roundup

🧠 AI

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Apple CEO Tim Cook announced plans to significantly increase AI investments and openness to acquisitions to accelerate the company’s AI roadmap. (CNBC)

• Nvidia firmly denied allegations of "backdoors" in its H20 AI chips after China's Cyberspace Administration raised security concerns. (ABO)

• Researchers developed an AI model that analyzes glucose spikes to detect hidden health risks like heart disease in non-diabetics. (MEDX)

• Google DeepMind introduced AlphaEarth Foundations, an AI model that processes vast Earth observation data to generate highly accurate global maps. (DM)

🤖 Hardware & Robotics

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Researchers unveiled a swarm robotics system to replace traditional assembly lines, using generative AI-guided autonomous robots for efficient, collaborative manufacturing. (RR)

• Neuralink will launch a clinical study in Great Britain to test its brain chips, aiming to enable patients with severe paralysis to control digital and physical tools using their thoughts. (CNA)

• Shanghai introduced a humanoid robotic police officer to direct traffic, marking a step toward AI-driven traffic management. (NYP)

• Life Time Chanhassen debuted Minnesota’s first AI-powered robotic massage service, offering customizable 15- to 60-minute sessions that have been booked 600 times since spring. (AX)

🚀 Defense & Space

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Mexican drug cartel members reportedly infiltrated Ukraine’s International Legion to acquire advanced FPV drone skills, raising concerns about escalating drone warfare in Mexico’s drug conflicts. (DN)

• The U.S. Navy unveiled plans for a fleet of uncrewed surface vessels, dubbed Modular Surface Attack Craft, equipped with containerized missile launchers and sensors for versatile missions to counter China's naval advantage. (TWZ)

• A NASA astronaut remotely controlled a Martian robot from the International Space Station, a historic first that could enhance future Mars missions by enabling real-time rover operations. (IE)

• SpaceX and NASA postponed the Crew-11 astronaut mission launch to the International Space Station due to weather, with the next attempt scheduled for Friday. (SP)

💰 Venture Capital & Deals

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Genesys secured $1.5 billion in investments from Salesforce and ServiceNow, valuing the AI-powered customer experience platform at $15 billion. (GEN)

• AI infrastructure company fal raised $125 million in a Series C round led by Meritech, valuing the San Francisco-based firm at $1.5 billion. (TIA)

• Anaconda, an AI and Python development platform company, raised over $150 million in a Series C round led by Insight Partners, valuing the company at $1.5 billion. (CRN)

• Stable, a Tether-focused Layer 1 blockchain, raised $28 million in a seed round led by Bitfinex and Hack VC to enhance USDT adoption for fast, low-cost digital payments. (TB)

FREEDOM

📢 UK Government Emails Reveal Efforts to Pressure Tech Platforms into Censoring Posts on Immigration

The Scoop: House Judiciary Committee Chairman Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) released UK government emails revealing a concerted effort to monitor and suppress online posts, raising fears of censorship under the guise of curbing misinformation and unrest.

The Details:

• Documents show UK officials flagging lawful speech, including a viral Manchester video captioned “It looks like Islamabad” with 14 million views, for removal.

• Emails dated August 3-4, 2024, highlight pressure on tech platforms to address “anti-immigrant content” and narratives about a “two-tier” police system, even when posts didn’t violate laws or platform rules.

• One email flagged a freedom of information request calling asylum seekers “undocumented fighting age males,” urging urgent platform intervention due to “risks of violence.”

What's Next: Free speech advocates continue to raise alarms over the erosion of public discourse in the UK, citing the Online Safety Act. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump recently warned UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer against censoring Truth Social, hinting at potential action against Britain if his social media platform is targeted.

Freedom Roundup

🏛️ Policy

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Roughly 154,000 federal employees, or 6.7% of the civilian workforce, accepted buyout offers from the Trump administration as part of an initiative to reduce government size. (RTS)

• Ten states passed 11 anti-ESG bills in 2025, targeting financial institutions' ability to consider climate and ESG factors. (ESGD)

• The GSA secured a deal with DocuSign, providing federal agencies up to 70% discounts on eSignature and Intelligent Agreement Management software through January 2027. (NG)

• Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss again criticized JPMorgan Chase’s proposed fees on fintech and crypto data access, saying they undermine Trump’s vision of making America the crypto capital. (BN)

💬 Free Speech & Woke Overreach

• ⭐ Editor’s Pick: An AP-NORC poll shows fewer than half of U.S. adults now believe African Americans face significant discrimination, down from 60% in 2021. (AP)

• The Trump administration referred Harvard University to the Justice Department for a civil rights investigation, accusing the school of failing to address antisemitic discrimination. (TOI)

• Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird (R) launched an investigation into the University of Iowa after a video surfaced showing an employee admitting to circumventing federal DEI restrictions. (CF)

• The shooting death of Blackstone executive Wesley LePatner in a Midtown Manhattan office sparked celebrations from leftists online viewing her as a symbol of corporate greed. (FP)

That's a wrap! You're officially caught up on all things tech, markets and freedom. Subscribe to CAPITAL below.

Feel free to reply to this email with any questions and/or comments.

DISCLAIMER: The CAPITAL newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The CAPITAL newsletter and its owner and operator, Josh Caplan, are not liable for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on this information. The CAPITAL newsletter is solely owned and independently operated by Josh Caplan, separate from any employer affiliations.