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PS: There is no newsletter tomorrow, January 1, 2026. Happy New Year!

MARKETS

💰 China Expands Export Controls on Silver, Raising Risks for U.S. Supply Chains

(Credit: Geizkragen69/Pixabay)

The Scoop: China is moving to tighten controls on silver exports starting Thursday, formally elevating the metal to strategic status and expanding Beijing’s leverage over supply chains critical to U.S. industry and defense amid near record highs and rising demand, CNBC reports.

The Details:

  • The policy does not amount to an outright ban, but places silver under stricter export licensing, with just 44 companies approved to export in 2026 and 2027.

  • The new framework also restricts exports of tungsten and antimony, both heavily dominated by China and widely used in defense and advanced technologies.

  • Tesla CEO Elon Musk criticized the move, warning that silver is essential to many industrial processes.

  • U.S. officials added silver to the national list of critical minerals in November, citing its role in electronics, batteries, solar cells, and medical instruments.

  • China exported more than 4,600 tons of silver in the first 11 months of the year, far exceeding imports, underscoring Beijing’s influence over global supply.

What’s Next: With silver prices ($72.50 per troy ounce) near record highs and demand rising, the new controls are likely to accelerate U.S. and allied efforts to secure alternative supplies, boost domestic production, and treat once-routine industrial metals as strategic assets in an increasingly contested global economy.

Market Roundup

🏦 Economy

  • Editor’s Pick: The Economist, often critical of Trump’s agenda, conceded that the U.S. economy is poised to accelerate in 2026. (EC)

  • Fed minutes reveal officials' caution on further rate cuts early next year, with some favoring a prolonged pause. (WSJ)

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged more proactive macroeconomic policies in 2026 to sustain long-term growth, as the economy nears its 5% target amid consumption and property challenges. (CNA)

  • The IRS raised the optional standard mileage deduction for business driving to 72.5 cents per mile starting January 2026, offering workers a larger tax break amid rising vehicle costs. (FBN)

📈 Hot Stock Picks

  • Editor’s Pick: MarketBeat highlighted five top-rated dividend stocks for 2026 with analyst "Buy" ratings, including Ultrapar Participacoes at a standout 7.36% yield. (MB)

  • Analysts highlighted Cal-Maine Foods, Lamb Weston Holdings, and DDC Enterprise as top oversold stocks poised for gains this quarter, driven by low RSI readings and sector resilience in consumer staples. (BEN)

  • Morningstar identified Medtronic, Bentley Systems, and Tilray Brands as freshly undervalued based on recent price declines, trading at discounts to fair value. (MS)

  • Motley Fool spotlights REIT W.P. Carey as a buy in 2026, citing its 5.7% dividend yield backed by stable net-lease rental income and projected mid-single-digit funds-from-operations growth. (MF)

🏢 Industry

  • Editor’s Pick: Investment bankers are bracing for a wave of megadeals in 2026, fueled by CEO confidence, a friendlier U.S. antitrust climate under Trump, and momentum from 2025's record $10 billion-plus transactions. (WSJ)

  • Michael Burry clarified that he is not currently shorting Tesla, calling the EV giant "ridiculously overvalued." (BEN)

  • Trump Media launched five "Made in America"-focused ETFs on the NYSE under the Truth.Fi brand, targeting sectors like defense, energy and real estate. (IBD)

  • A Florida man is suing Outback Steakhouse for negligence after a toilet shattered under him at its Ocala restaurant, alleging severe and permanent bodily injuries. (FBN)

🛢️ Energy & Commodities

  • Editor’s Pick: Oil tankers, including sanctioned vessels, continue arriving in Venezuela despite intensified U.S. blockade efforts, with PDVSA building floating storage as exports halve and seized cargoes mount. (RTS)

  • China will impose additional 55% tariffs on certain beef imports exceeding quotas from countries including the U.S. and Brazil starting January 1, 2026, for a three-year period. (YF)

  • Oil prices are poised for their sharpest annual decline since 2020, with Brent down 18% and WTI nearly 20% in 2025, weighed down by persistent supply glut from OPEC+ output increases. (INV)

  • Duke Energy applied for an early site permit to potentially build up to 600 MW of advanced nuclear reactors in North Carolina. (OP)

🌕 Crypto

  • Editor’s Pick: Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $355 million in net inflows on Tuesday, snapping a seven-day outflow streak amid signs of resilient institutional demand. (TB)

  • Bitwise filed with the SEC for 11 new single-asset crypto strategy ETFs tracking tokens including Bittensor, Tron, Aave and Uniswap. (CT)

  • Coinbase warns that U.S. restrictions on stablecoin yields could cede ground to China, as Beijing prepares to add interest payments to its digital yuan starting in 2026. (CC)

TECH

💻 2025's AI-fueled Scientific Breakthroughs

(Credit: Google DeepMind)

The Scoop: AI-driven scientific innovation surged in 2025, accelerating breakthroughs across medicine, robotics, climate science, and materials research as powerful new models moved from theory into real-world discovery, Axios reports.

The Details:

  • Researchers used AI to speed up and lower the cost of diagnosing Alzheimer’s and related diseases, including identifying a causal gene by visualizing protein structures in 3D.

  • Google released AlphaGenome, a model designed to analyze long DNA sequences and improve disease understanding and drug discovery.

  • AI-enhanced weather models combined machine learning with physics-based climate systems to forecast rare “gray swan” extreme weather events, with Google’s latest system running up to eight times faster.

  • An MIT-led team used machine learning to scan scientific literature and over a million rock samples to identify lower-cost alternatives to traditional cement.

What’s Next: President Donald Trump’s new “Genesis Mission” aims to coordinate AI-driven research across federal agencies, with major tech firms already on board and a push to accelerate robotics expected in 2026.

Tech Roundup

🧠 AI

  • ⭐ Editor’s Pick: SoftBank completed its $40 billion investment in OpenAI, deploying the final $22-22.5 billion tranche at a $260 billion pre-money valuation, securing an 11% stake. (CNBC)

  • OpenAI is awarding employees an average of $1.5 million each in stock-based compensation in 2025, outpacing pay at any major tech startup in recent history. (WSJ)

  • Nvidia is in advanced talks to acquire Israeli AI startup AI21 Labs for $2-3 billion. (CTCH)

  • xAI is expanding its Memphis-area Colossus supercomputer complex with a new building purchase in Mississippi, boosting capacity to nearly 2 gigawatts. (BBG)

🤖 Robots

  • ⭐ Editor’s Pick: Researchers unveiled a neuromorphic electronic skin enabling humanoid robots to detect pain-like damage and trigger instant protective reflexes. (TEX)

  • Caltech unveiled the X1 robotic duo—a Unitree G1 humanoid paired with the multi-modal M4 hybrid drone that can crawl, drive, and fly, designed for autonomous disaster response. (DXL)

  • The Repawse robotic exoskeleton helps injured dogs regain natural walking by reading muscle signals from a healthy front leg to power and synchronize movement in paralyzed hind legs. (IE)

  • Researchers unveiled the Porcospino Flex, a spiny cyberpunk caterpillar-inspired robot designed for navigating mud, tight spaces, and uneven terrain in sewage inspections. (HCK)

🚀 Defense & Space

  • ⭐ Editor’s Pick: NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman declared that the U.S. will build a base on the moon. (NDTV)

  • Chinese military wargames simulate combat operations in Latin America, eyeing a regional foothold to disrupt U.S. forces in potential Western Hemisphere conflicts. (DIP)

  • Boeing secured a nearly $8.6 billion Pentagon contract to produce 25 advanced F-15IA fighter jets for Israel, with an option for 25 more. (JPOST)

FREEDOM

📢 Washington State Daycares Come Under Scrutiny After Minnesota Somali Fraud Report

(Credit: Tara Winstead/Pexels)

The Scoop: Scrutiny over alleged daycare fraud is spreading beyond Minnesota after a viral investigation reignited online sleuthing, with Washington state now drawing attention over patterns in subsidized childcare facilities flagged by an independent researcher, Newsweek reports.

The Details:

  • Interest surged after a 42-minute video by citizen journalist Nick Shirley showed allegedly inactive, taxpayer-funded childcare centers in Minnesota, prompting broader examination nationwide.

  • Seattle-based independent researcher Kristen Mag said roughly 10% of Washington childcare centers eligible for state subsidies list Somali as their primary language, despite Somalis making up about 0.2% of the state population.

  • Mag reported that hundreds of Washington listings lack basic information such as full street addresses or operating hours, based on searches of the state’s Department of Children, Youth, and Families (DCYF) database.

  • Replicating parts of her methodology yields a smaller but still significant number of subsidized centers, many of which show active licenses and recent inspections.

  • Washington State Sen. Lisa Wellman on December 22 pre-filed legislation expanding public records exemptions to shield personal information of all licensed child care providers from disclosure, citing risks of harassment and doxxing, radio host Ari Hoffman reported.

What’s Next: Federal and state authorities say enforcement efforts are intensifying after renewed attention on childcare funding programs. Investigators are expected to determine whether the online findings point to administrative gaps or rise to the level of prosecutable fraud.

Freedom Roundup

🏛️ Policy & Culture

  • Editor’s Pick: HHS froze all federal child care payments to Minnesota amid allegations of widespread daycare fraud, sparked by Nick Shirley’s video exposing non-operational facilities. (FOX)

  • A federal judge blocked the Trump administration's attempt to defund the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. (POL)

  • Leftwing activists backed by dark-money groups like the New Venture Fund are pushing prosecutors to charge fossil fuel companies with "climate homicide" for deaths linked to extreme weather. (TH)

  • The Justice Department sued Virginia over a state law granting in-state tuition to illegal immigrants. (DOJ)

  • A woke Oregon city reappointed convicted murderer Kyle Hedquist—who fatally shot a 19-year-old in 1994—to its police review board, citing his unique criminal justice perspective. (NYP)

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DISCLAIMER: The CAPITAL newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The CAPITAL newsletter and its owner and operator, Josh Caplan, are not liable for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on this information. The CAPITAL newsletter is solely owned and independently operated by Josh Caplan, separate from any employer affiliations.

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